Future trajectory
Results of ecosystem restoration in the Rocky Mountain Trench differ across the range of objectives. The broadest objectives are being met: expanding and maintaining open forest and grassland is occurring (RMTERP, 2014). A closely associated objective, though not necessarily for ecosystem restoration as much as community protection, is a reduction in the risk of high-intensity and high-severity wildfires (RMTERP, 2014). At a finer scale, there results are either unknown or mixed so far, though this may be due as much to the relatively recent establishment of consistent monitoring protocols and a short history in which to see progress as to actual confounding outcomes. A summary of monitoring efforts was produced in 2014, which sought to compare all monitoring conducted by different project participants in the area up until 2012 (Rocky Mountain Trench Ecosystem Restoration Program). However, only 8 of 24 sites used protocols consistent enough for comparison. Consistent protocols have since been recommended to all participants and should aid in better evaluation of success in the future. With the data available presently, the eight compared site (studied between 2002 and 2012) demonstrated a "lack of clear trends in plant community response" (Rocky Mountain Trench Ecosystem Restoration Program 2014, pp. 14).
The trajectory of future ecosystems in the Trench is uncertain. Novel plant community assemblages and climatic conditions will create new challenges, as described in the Changing Nature section above. Management approaches based on current Biogeoclimatic Zones and Natural Disturbance types, which target specific ecosystem succession and disturbance processes may not be appropriate now, and less so in the future (Haeussler, S. 2011). Confounding factors abound: for example, in historically less-dense forests, more and higher severity fires occurred during warmer and drier conditions (Daniels et al., 2011; Heyerdahl et al., 2008). While this leads to predictions that the combination of increased forest fuel and changing climate will cause more frequent and more severe fires, increased fire frequency combined with drought conditions may slow or reverse forest encroachment on grasslands (Gayton, 2013). And although RMTERP's hopes to restore grassland, the qualities of a rapidly expanding grassland may be completely novel due to potential dominance of invasive species or native species suited to early succession (Gayton, 2003). While Gayton (2013) predicts cheatgrass and other invasive annuals benefit from more frequent fire and longer growing seasons due to a shorter life-cycle and more flexible germination periods, some experiments and long-term studies (Ferguson & Craig, 2010; Roy et al, 2014; Potts & Stephens, 2009) demonstrate that frequent fire can reduce the presence of invasive species. Prescribed fire can either reduce or encourage spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe), a species identified as problematic in the Trench, depending on fire severity (Ferguson & Craig, 2010). Other invasives such as cheatgrass, however, seem particularly well adapted to fire, and have the potential to increase both fire frequency and aridity, through conversion of open woodland to frequently burning grassland (Chambers & Pellant, 2008).
The trajectory of future ecosystems in the Trench is uncertain. Novel plant community assemblages and climatic conditions will create new challenges, as described in the Changing Nature section above. Management approaches based on current Biogeoclimatic Zones and Natural Disturbance types, which target specific ecosystem succession and disturbance processes may not be appropriate now, and less so in the future (Haeussler, S. 2011). Confounding factors abound: for example, in historically less-dense forests, more and higher severity fires occurred during warmer and drier conditions (Daniels et al., 2011; Heyerdahl et al., 2008). While this leads to predictions that the combination of increased forest fuel and changing climate will cause more frequent and more severe fires, increased fire frequency combined with drought conditions may slow or reverse forest encroachment on grasslands (Gayton, 2013). And although RMTERP's hopes to restore grassland, the qualities of a rapidly expanding grassland may be completely novel due to potential dominance of invasive species or native species suited to early succession (Gayton, 2003). While Gayton (2013) predicts cheatgrass and other invasive annuals benefit from more frequent fire and longer growing seasons due to a shorter life-cycle and more flexible germination periods, some experiments and long-term studies (Ferguson & Craig, 2010; Roy et al, 2014; Potts & Stephens, 2009) demonstrate that frequent fire can reduce the presence of invasive species. Prescribed fire can either reduce or encourage spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe), a species identified as problematic in the Trench, depending on fire severity (Ferguson & Craig, 2010). Other invasives such as cheatgrass, however, seem particularly well adapted to fire, and have the potential to increase both fire frequency and aridity, through conversion of open woodland to frequently burning grassland (Chambers & Pellant, 2008).